Larry King did a show on Saturday on the youth vote in this election, and at one point, his guests included Jessica Colon, the head of the Young Republican National Federation. She had this to say:
JESSICA COLON, YOUNG REPUBLICAN NATIONAL FEDERATION: “Well, what’s great about the Republican candidate — the Republican candidates and the young Republican voters — the young Republican votes have voted for every — nearly every winner in every primary thus far, whereas the Democratic youth voters have really focused all their energy on Barack Obama. What if Senator Obama isn’t the nominee? Are those young voters going to come back to the polls? What the young Republican voters are showing is that, yes, they’re going to stand behind the nominee into the general election.” (italics are mine)
Later, she said the following:
“What’s important to recognize here — and follow me on this one — is that the overall share of the electorate for the young voter is essentially the same on the Republican and the Democratic side. So, overall, the average turn out for young voters is about 13 percent, 18 to 29, in the primaries that we’ve seen thus far. And that follows suit in the Republican and the Democratic primary.”
Let’s examine her talking points for a minute…
I took a look at 21 Republican primaries or caucuses for which CNN had exit polling data, from Iowa through Louisiana. Now, it’s true that Republicans in the 18-29 age group correctly picked the winner in 17 out of those 21 contests. But, in 12 of those 21 contests, every age group correctly picked the winner. So, Ms. Colon’s point is the equivalent of saying that the voters chose the winner! Wow, that’s great insight. There were only 5 contests in which the age groups voted differently but the youth correctly picked the winner: Alabama, Tennessee, Georgia, and Louisiana, where they all went for Huckabee, and Florida, where they chose McCain. There were 4 states where the youth got it wrong: South Carolina, Missouri, and Oklahoma, where they went for Huckabee, but McCain won, and in Arizona, where they went for Romney, but McCain won.
So, looking at the data, there were only 5 states where the GOP youth showed any kind of insight, if you can call it that, whatsoever. Ms. Colon is clearly trying to put some kind of positive spin on the GOP youth vote this year, but it just doesn’t hold up.
What about her point that the GOP youth are saying that they will stand behind their nominee? Well, looking at 19 GOP primaries/caucuses, on average, Huckabee took 27% of the 18-29 age group, McCain took about 29%, Romney took roughly 28%, and Ron Paul took 10%. So, the GOP youth are clearly split on who they want to win, and it’s not clear at all that they’ll stand behind the presumptive nominee, McCain. Romney has, of course, dropped out. In the post-Romney Louisiana GOP vote, Huckabee beat McCain 54%-32% in the 18-29 age group. Yeah, it’s the South, where Huckmania is gathering strength, but that’s just another way of saying that the youth in the South aren’t big fans of McCain…sort of like the rest of the GOP. I’m not sure which way the youth supporting Romney will vote in the coming GOP contest, but that’s something to watch for in the coming weeks.
Here’s another interesting fact: In 19 GOP contests so far, the 18-29 age group accounts for, on average, 10.8% of all votes cast. On the Democratic side, it’s 13.1% from 20 contests. So, the Dems are getting out more young voters than is the GOP, despite Colon’s assertion that the youth vote is about 13% of the total on both sides. A roughly 2% difference may not sound like a lot, but thanks to the 2000 election, we all know how much a narrow margin matters.
The only worthwhile point she makes is with respect to what happens to the youth vote on the Democratic side if Obama is not the nominee. Looking at 19 Dem primaries/caucuses through Louisiana, Obama took, on average, 60% of the 18-29 age group, while Hillary took 34.7%. If Hillary is the nominee, are these kids going to stay home, or will they come out for Hillary? That’s a huge wild card. My guess is that if Hillary is the nominee, then Obama will encourage the youth to still get out and vote, because the Dems want to win the white house, and he can help to make that happen, whether he’s on the ticket as VP or not. If he’s truly serious about changing the way Washington works, then he will campaign hard for Hillary and encourage the youth to still go to the polls in November, whether or not he’s on the ballot.
TAGS: Barack Obama, election, georgia, GOP, Hillary, kids, mccain, NATO, obama, polls, Republicans, Ron Paul, spin
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